Uganda seriously needs strategies to counter this population growth, at least family planning should be a must.
William Kituuka
By Evelyn Lirri
Posted Saturday, August 21 2010 at 00:00
Uganda will be home to 89 million people in 2037, unless the country’s fertility rate is checked. According to the 2010 world data sheet from the Population Reference Bureau, Ugandan women produce an average of 6.7 children during their lifetime, which has given Uganda one of the fastest growing populations in the world.
The average age of Uganda’s 31 million people is 15 years, which makes it the second country in the world with the youngest population after Niger.
“In countries such as Uganda, where a woman has on average more than six children, there is a 1-to-1 ratio of working-age adults and children under 14.
This high youth dependency burdens governments, communities, and families as they try to meet the needs of large, young populations,” the report reveals.
In more developed countries, children under 14 make up only 17 per cent of the total population, and there are 4.1 adults of working age for every child under 14. As a result, youth dependency or the number of children economically dependent on the working-age population is relatively low.
The National Development Plan indicates that the dependency ratio stands at 110 per cent - meaning that for every nine workers, there are 10 dependents.
The result of this has been high unemployment coupled with a high dependence burden, denying the country the potential contribution of this redundant labour force.
“The danger is that you have a small working group stretched to service the young largely unproductive group of people,” says Mr Charles Zirarema, the acting director at the Population Secretariat.
Population time bomb: 89m Ugandans by 2037
BIG THREAT: Almost half of Uganda's population is made up of people under 15 years.
By Saturday Monitor's Evelyn Lirri
Posted Saturday, August 21 2010 at 00:00
In Summary
Uganda has the world’s 2nd youngest population
* 48.9 per cent under age of 15
* Fertility rate is six children per woman
* Education, healthcare and jobs key to challenges to Uganda
* One of the highest teenage pregnancies at 25 per cent
* Majority of females marry by age of 24
* Two in three women begin childbearing by age of 19
* At current fertility rate number of UPE pupils will increase from current 7.5m to 18.4m by 2037.
* This would require a significant rise in the number of teachers from 152,000 to 459,800 in the same year.
* In developed countries, children under 14 make up only 17 per cent of the total population and there are 4.1 adults of working age for every child under 14.
The latest Population Reference Bureau report indicates that Uganda has the world’s second youngest population. Up to 48.7 per cent of Ugandans are under 15 years of age. This explosion of young people places the country at the edge of a demographic challenge. Saturday Monitor's Evelyn Lirri asks how Uganda will employ and feed these numbers.
It’s a time bomb! But one that will take another thirty years to explode and when it does, Uganda could find itself unable to feed its population, it will not have enough schools, hospitals, there will be more squalid settlements and traffic jam will probably be ten times worse than what we know of today.
Thousands will be jobless and ultimate chaos could be the rule other than the exception leading to serious political mayhem but only if, as a country we do not control our population growth.
The average age of Uganda’s 31 million people is just 15 years, ranking the country in second position in the world with the youngest population after Niger, according to the 2010 world data sheet from the Population Reference Bureau.
But a young population with more consumers than producers has enormous implications for a developing country like Uganda, particularly in the area of social services and the growth of the economy in general.
The PRB data sheet shows that in sub-Saharan Africa, young people make up more than 42 per cent of the total population, and there are only 1.3 working-age adults for every child under 14.
In more developed countries, children under 14 make up only 17 per cent of the total population, and there are 4.1 adults of working age for every child under 14. As a result, youth dependency or the number of children economically dependent on the working-age population is relatively low.
“In countries such as Uganda, where a woman has on average more than six children, there is a 1-to-1 ratio of working-age adults and children under 14. This high youth dependency burdens governments, communities, and families as they try to meet the needs of large, young populations,” the report reveals.
Demographers' take
Demographers agree that providing for the needs of young people, particularly education and healthcare makes more economic sense if it is distributed over a larger number of working adults, which is the challenge that Uganda will have to confront as it tries to satisfy the needs of the bulging numbers.
Mr Charles Zirarema, the acting director at the Population Secretariat, explains that having more than half of a country’s population under the age of 18 years not only stretches the economy, it also makes it highly dependant.
According to the National Development Plan, the dependency ratio stands at 110 per cent - meaning that for every nine workers, there are 10 dependents. The result of this has been high unemployment coupled with a high dependence burden, denying the country the potential contribution of this redundant labour force.
“The danger is that you have a small working group stretched to service the young largely unproductive group of people,” said Mr Zirarema. Yet this is not about to change. If anything, Uganda’s population is increasingly becoming younger, with the proportion of children under the age of 18 having increased from 51 per cent in 1969 to 56 per cent when the 2002 National Census was conducted.
Population boom
The Population Secretariat says this population boom is likely to eventually overwhelm government. In a report titled “Uganda: Population Factors and National Development”, it notes that Uganda’s population has been growing rapidly from five million in 1948 to 31 million by 2009.
Like the global population that rose from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 6.9 billion in 2010, much of this bulge is a consequence of high fertility rates and an equally high unmet need for family planning services.
In Uganda, fertility rate stands at 6.7 per cent among women of child-bearing age, while contraceptive use is at a low 23 per cent.
Projections from the Population Secretariat show with continued high fertility, the population would increase from about 30 million to 50.9 million in 2022 and 88.8 million by 2037.
But in the case of a declining fertility projection, the population would increase to 62.4 million persons in 2037, meaning there would be nearly 26.6 million fewer persons. Health experts say one underlying reason for the high fertility rate is the high teenage pregnancy where women start child bearing as early as 14 years.
Uganda has one of the highest teenage pregnancies in Africa (25 per cent). Dr Peter Ibembe, the national programme manager at Reproductive Health Uganda (RHU), says the majority of young females in Uganda are married off by the age of 24 and two in three women in the country begin childbearing by the age of 19.
“Part of the reason for this is that not all young people have been reached with reproductive health services,” says Dr Ibembe. Because reproductive health services don’t easily reach young people, he explains that contraceptive use among this category of people remains at a low 10 per cent compared to the national average of 23 per cent. This has consequently led to a high rate of induced abortion; many using crude high risk methods and maternal deaths among young girls under 24 years of age.
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