ERIAS CAN ONLY LOSE THE MAYORAL SEAT IF NRM DOES WHAT IS EXPECTED

KAMPALA RACE - LUKWAGO CONFIDENT
Kampala mayoral candidate, Erias Lukwago has predicted victory in the mayoral elections. There are six candidates in the Kampala mayoral race; Lukwago (Suubi 2011), Peter Sematimba (NRM), Francis Babu (independent), Michael Mabikke (IPC), Sandra Katebalirwe (independent) and Emmanuel Tumusiime (FIL).
Ugandans will Wednesday elect municipality mayors and district chairpersons.
Speaking to the New Vision Tuesday morning, Lukwago said, "if they don't rig, I will win with 85% and if they rig I will have a 75% of the votes." He reiterated his wish to restore sanity in the city and rid of the corrupt leaders as well as uplifting Kampala to a better city.
The stiff competition is between Lukwago and Peter Sematimba. Sematimba whose party had an excellent performance in the presidential and parliamentary election in Kampala, is basing on this factor for victory. He promises to use his good connections with the government to improve the city.Kampala has a population of 1,597,900. Of these, 1,200,295 are registered voters. There are 138 polling stations in Kampala central, 263 in Kawempe , 218 in Makindye, 276 in Nakawa and 336 in Rubaga divisions.

Is the opposition retaining its grip on Kampala?
The battle for the dominance of Kampala will clearly be between the Opposition and the National Resistance Movement (NRM). In the previous months, the two sides have been courting Kampala voters for votes in the Presidential, Parliamentary and local government campaigns.
But the Presidential and Parliamentary elections held on February 18 fell short of giving a clear cut on who is who between the opposition and NRM in Kampala.The Parliamentary elections gave the opposition six of the nine Parliamentary seats but this was not significant enough to prove that the opposition still dominated Kampala's politics.
Before the February 18 elections, the Opposition occupied eight of the Parliamentary seats in Kampala. The latest elections have given NRM two other seats formerly in the hands of the opposition.The perception that Kampala is a stronghold for the opposition has since changed. The loss of the two seats to NRM has played a role in changing the perception.
The fact that many of the opposition candidates narrowly regained their seats has also forced many to think that the opposition is losing its grip on Kampala.The results of Friday's Presidential elections also changed what was a common thought that NRM was weak in Kampala.
Although the opposition won the majority of the votes in Kampala, the margin was again not significant to show that the opposition was still enjoying that 'popular support'.The Opposition garnered approximately 54% of the votes in Kampala against NRM's 46% in the Presidential race.
The poor performance of the Opposition in Kampala has left its candidates in the Mayoral race in danger.Analysts say that the Mayoral elections slated for Wednesday will decide whether the city is still in the hands of the opposition or it has fallen over to the NRM.Out of the six, all the indicators show that it's either Lukwago or Ssematimba who will win. There are several factors which explain why it's either of the two to win.

Why Lukwago may win
The February 18, Parliamentary elections saw a big number of candidates who were fronted by Ssubi a local pressure group based in Buganda win in Kampala, Wakiso and Masaka. Lukwago is an independent leaning on Ssubi and may benefit from the wave of victories the Ssubi candidates like Moses Kasibante defeated Singh Katongole in Rubaga North got.
Besides, the victory of Lukwago's comrades like Betty Nambooze the MP elect for Mukono Municipality, Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda of Kyadondo East, Medard Segona of Busiro East are likely to help Lukwago win. This group of the newly elected MPs has been behind him and has been campaigning for him since the campaigns started. The group is popular among the masses especially in the urban centers which may tilt victory in Lukwago's favour.
The recent victory by the six opposition party candidates in Kampala is a sign that the Opposition is still strong in the city and if Lukwago consolidates the Opposition's support in Kampala, he is likely to become the next Mayor.

Lukwago is also expected to benefit from his allegiance to the Mengo government. There are so many supporters of Buganda in several constituencies in Kampala and these are likely to cast their votes in Favour of Lukwago who has been at the forefront of defending the interests of the Kingdom in Parliament.

Ssematimba winning
Unlike in the previous elections, this time around NRM has performed excellently in Kampala. The party managed to get three Parliamentary seats in Kampala and the performance of its leader President Yoweri Museveni's also improved significantly. Ssematimba will benefit from the improved performance of his party in Kampala. NRM also has an established system of village and Parish leaders who will help him to guard the election and protect the results against rigging. If he only consolidates NRM's support in Kampala, winning the Mayorship will not be a surprise for him.
Ssematimba is also expected to benefit from the divisions among the opposition Mayoral candidates. The serious divisions are between Lukwago and Mabike who are leaning on the Inter Party Cooperation (IPC). If the two share the opposition party votes, chances are high that Ssematimba will defeat them. In the recent Presidential elections, President Museveni got 46.08% in Kampala and if Ssematimba gets the same number of votes, he may be the next Mayor of Kampala.
After losing the bid for the President, most of the Opposition Party supporters are demoralized. Many of them are likely not to turn up on Wednesday for the Mayoral elections a gap that is likely to be exploited by Ssematimba and the NRM camp to win the elections.
The personality of Ssematimba is a factor that cannot be undermined in the race. Ssematimba is the kind of person who will fit among any group of people, the youth, women and elderly being a pastor. It is this personality that he is likely to exploit to win the Mayorship. He garnered a huge number of votes in the 2006 Mayoral elections from Makerere University and other Institutions of higher learning across in the city because of the personality.
He has left a legacy behind as the Division chairman of Rubaga. He maintained good sanitation in the division. Many people in other divisions in Kampala always loved to be residents in Rubaga because of the good sanitation. Ssematimba is expected to benefit from the good services he has offered in Rubaga.

Compiled by Apollo Mubiru and John Semakula

WHAT SECURITY IS GIVEN TO BALLOTS WHICH CAN MAKE A RECOUNT WORTH?

Moses Kasibante is losing the seat after a re-count?

safe guarding ballots while intimidating the people, all is a farce.
The most unfortunate development to day is the unholy marriage between the Electoral Commission and the NRM. If the NRM candidate lost the election after a lot of money was spent to bribe the voters, it looks like NRM is determined to see such a one win through the Ballot recount. The question raised is, in a situation where silly acts like ballot stuffing is done before even the voters cast their vote, who is that holy who will notstuff ballot boxes in favour of NRM. It is sad to say that some of what we see really stinks, but it is expected of a regime which is imposing itself on the people and using all machinery possible to intimidate the electorate. For instance, had it been another candidate for whom ballot boxes were stuffed in the Kampala Lord Mayor race such a one would have been dismissed, but because the NRM is the Electoral Commission sematimba prevails. It is a shame to the country, but anyway it is expected of a regime that has gone so low as the NRM.
william kituuka Kiwanuka

The Anti-riot Police guards the ballot boxes at Mengo Court as the recount goes on in the background
NRM WINS RUBAFA NORTH IN VOTE RECOUNT

Singh Katongole
By Andante Okanya
and Jeff Lule

SINGH Katongole was declared winner of the Rubaga North parliamentary seat after a vote recount ordered by the Mengo Chief Magistrates’ Court on Friday.
The NRM candidate polled 24,802 votes, while Moses Kasibante (independent) got 22,850 votes.
The results were declared this morning at 2:45am by the Kampala returning officer, Molly Mutazindwa
The tallying went on up to about 2:30am. Floodlights were switched on at the court compound at 7:00pm yesterday.
In the February 18 elections, Katongole, also NRM deputy treasurer, got 18,595 votes against independent candidate Moses Kasibante’s 24,054. There were seven other candidates in the race. Kasibante is a newscaster on CBS FM radio.
The votes recounted were from 140 out of the 141 polling stations in the constituency. However, results from the polling station near KCC Rubaga division, totalling 1,093, were reported missing.
A total of 58,637 votes were cast. Spoilt votes were six, invalid ones were 830, while the valid ones were 57,507.
Katongole said he was happy the results showed a reflection of the voters choice.
However, earlier, Kasibante’s team protested when it was discovered that the seals of eight boxes had been tampered with.
The team walked away in protest after failing to stop the recount. Kasibante won the poll in the first declaration of results on February 19.
But Katongole rejected the results, citing rigging and asked the magistrates’ court for a recount.

However, Kasibante in turn asked the High Court to stop the recount, which was granted.
But Mengo Chief Magistrates’ Court ignored the directive yesterday, saying it came after the recount had started.
Electoral Commission spokesperson Willy Ochola also said it was too late to stop the exercise.
The magistrates’ court ordered the recount on February 25, but the higher court halted the process pending its decision on Kasibante’s application.
“It is necessary to maintain the status-quo. An interim order is therefore issued pending outcome of the main application,” said Isaac Muwata, a High Court registrar.
In the February 18 elections, Katongole, also NRM deputy treasurer, got 18,595 votes against independent candidate Moses Kasibante’s 24,054. There were seven other candidates in the race. Kasibante is a newscaster on CBS FM radio.
Kasibante’s lawyers and agents stormed out of the court compound at 2:30pm but Katongole stayed on. By 1:00am, the counting was still going on amid tight security.
Earlier as the High Court in Kampala was hearing Kasibante’s application, Mengo Chief Magistrate Phillip Odoki was also hearing submissions from his lawyer Erias Lukwago, and Katongole’s lawyer Kangye Mugabi.
Lukwago argued that Kasibante was served with the order on Sunday at 1:00pm, which was against standard practice. He then asked for three more days to enable his client study the order.
Lukwago accused Katongole and the Electoral Commission (EC) of conniving to frustrate Kasibante. He asked Odoki to disqualify himself from the matter, saying “money could have exchanged hands”.

However, Mugabi said Kasibante was meant to be served on Friday but his residence could not be traced.
In spite of another lawyer, Medard Ssegona, producing a copy of the order halting the process, Odoki ordered the recount to start at 2:30pm. He advised any aggrieved party to petition the High Court.
Tempers flared when Lukwago tried to block the recount. Katongole accused Lukwago of purposely delaying the recounting. Amidst the exchange, Kizito Sserumaga, an agent of Kasibante, was thrown out of the court premises by security.
Kasibante, who was earlier at the High Court, arrived at Mengo Court at about 11:00am. The situation remained tense, with a thick blanket of security.
The anti-riot Police and armoured military trucks were strategically stationed at the court to avert crowd trouble.
Ssegona said the recount violated Kasibante’s constitutional rights and breached court procedure.
“The order flagrantly violates the applicant’s right to be heard in an election matter that has an effect of nullifying his election. It was filed against the EC without the winning candidate,” Ssegona said.
But Katongole’s lawyer, Asa Mugenyi, called for dismissal of the application, saying it was erroneous as it did not include the EC as the other respondent.
Mugenyi argued that the EC was in charge of the voting material and that during the recount, Katongole was a “mere observer”.
“Serving an order against Katongole Singh would be futile,” Mugenyi argued.
He cited section 65 of the Parliamentary Elections Act which empowers a Chief Magistrate to make an order for a recount.

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